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No US War on North Korea

An optimistic perspective on a scary crisis

It's significant that Moon Jae-in, the Democratic Party is leading in the looming election for a president to replace the impeached and ousted Park Geun-hye, daughter of Park Chong-hee, a widely reviled dictator favored by the US who was assassinated in office, is blasting the US for secretly, in the dead of night, rushing to install a controversial THAD anti-missile battery opposed by most South Koreans. Moon, a former human rights lawyer, favors a negotiated easing of relations with North Korea, not a policy of confrontation, and wants South Korea, not the US, to determine policy towards the North.

Any way you look at it, a US-launched war against North Korea, especially one opposed by the South, would be a very messy, bloody and probably long-running affair whose consequences could quickly include an armed conflict between US and Chinese troops, as happened the first time around with dreadful consequences. And remember: that was before China had nuclear weapons and when it had no ICBMs capable of putting them down on US cities from New York to Los Angeles.

So for all these reasons, I'm betting that what we're hearing and seeing from the Trump White House is only bluster. Perhaps President Trump will find some face-saving way to cut a deal with China in which he'll target some missile launching site in North Korea, which would be warned in advance of an attack so most people could clear out of the area, and then it would be hit by a barrage of Tomahawk missiles launched by the Carl Vinson battle group, should his naval "armada" ever reach its destination in the Yellow Sea or Sea of Japan. Those missiles that manage to reach their targets would wreak some photogenic damage he could distribute to the domestic media and his remaining supporters, much as he did with his pre-telegraphed airport raid in Syria.

I hope I'm right on this. If I'm wrong, it won't much matter though.

story | by Dr. Radut